What's working and failing at movie theaters this year, from 'Sinners' to 'Snow White'

Although live-action remakes are a hot trend, audiences still crave fresh ideas.

"Original stories are starting to rally now," box-office analyst David A. Gross told BI. "They're incredibly important, and it's good to see them connecting."

This category's salvation was "Sinners," which is the biggest breakout of the year so far. The vampire movie set in Mississippi captivated viewers, raking in $364 million worldwide. It had a $90 million budget, according to The Hollywood Reporter. The film was so buzzy that it only fell 6% in its second weekend.

"The success story of the year, to me, is Ryan Coogler," Mantz said of the "Sinners" director.

Word of mouth carried that movie, as well as flicks based on familiar IP, like "A Minecraft Movie" and "Lilo & Stitch," Comscore box-office analyst Paul Dergarabedian said.

"Great marketing can buy you a strong opening weekend," Dergarabedian said. "But a great movie gets you long-term playability."

Originality hasn't worked this year for kids — at least not yet.

Pixar's "Elio" just had the worst debut in the storied studio's history, while remakes like "Lilo & Stitch" and "How to Train Your Dragon" were both smash hits.

"We all want originality, but it doesn't always pay the bills," Dergarabedian said.

While this might seem like a paradox, movie-industry analysts say it makes sense, as taking the whole family to the movies requires more effort and money.

"Those family audiences are very price-sensitive, and they're also risk-averse," Dergarabedian said. "They want to know: What are they getting into?"

Family-focused films are opening to $30 million in the US this year, versus $38 million last year, Gross wrote in his email newsletter this week. However, that figure for this year is still the second-best since the pandemic.

"Breaking through with an original family story has become an enormous and expensive challenge," Gross wrote this week.

Much digital ink has been spilled about so-called "superhero fatigue," and for good reason.

"Superheroes are a diminished genre compared with the pre-pandemic years," Gross told BI. "These are still important and powerful titles, but there's a lot less of this than before."

There are four superhero movies on the slate in 2025. Disney's Marvel already released "Captain America: Brave New World" and "Thunderbolts*" to underwhelming results, as they each grossed roughly $400 million on what THR reported were budgets of $180 million.

The "Captain America" reboot didn't impress critics, who gave it a 48% Rotten Tomatoes score. And while Mantz said "Thunderbolts*" was "a good, solid movie" that critics and audiences liked, it featured lesser-known Marvel characters that didn't strike him as overly memorable.

When asked about superhero fatigue, Dergarabedian simply said: "There's bad movie fatigue."

Theater owners now hope Warner's "Superman" and Disney's "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" will save the day later this summer.

Horror movies are scaring up huge ticket sales this year.

Besides the smash hit "Sinners," Gross also mentioned the sneaky successful "Final Destination: Bloodlines," which made $280 million on a $50 million budget, according to Variety.

"They're relatively inexpensive to make, and there are more titles than ever," Gross said of horror movies.

Universal's "M3GAN 2.0," a sequel to the surprise hit M3GAN about a killer AI-powered doll, will look to maintain that momentum when it debuts this weekend.

The days when actors and companies were praised for sharing their political views seem distant.

"Snow White" is a masterclass in how to not promote a movie, Mantz said, calling it "a disaster of its own making."

The live-action remake of the Disney classic got branded as "woke" by conservative critics. Then there were remarks by the star Rachel Zegler about the original film and the war in Gaza.

"One tweet can derail a movie," Dergarabedian said.

However, one analyst said politics weren't the biggest problem for "Snow White."

"I don't think everybody just said, 'It's woke, let's not go,'" Gross told BI in March. "I just think it is a little bit confusing; it's cross-signals. I think a lot of it goes back to the film — the reviews are not good."

"Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning," the eighth installment of the iconic Tom Cruise franchise, earned strong reviews from fans and critics, who assigned it Rotten Tomatoes scores of 88% and 80%, respectively.

However, "The Final Reckoning" also had a huge budget of an estimated $400 million (including marketing costs), according to THR.

At that price tag, Dergarabedian believes theatrical profitability could be an uphill battle for the newest "Mission: Impossible" movie, considering that it has made just under $550 million a month after its debut — without accounting for theater owners' cut.

Apple's big-budget "F1" movie will face a similarly tough road to profitability when it hits theaters this weekend.

While Dergarabedian doesn't know the details of the studio-theater split for "The Final Reckoning," he said the film made 70% of its money overseas, which is a promising sign.

"This is in no way a flop," Dergarabedian said of Cruise's latest film. "To me, a flop is a movie that is both unprofitable and is not a good movie."

There are also other ways for "The Final Reckoning" to generate money, like on-demand rentals and leading viewers to Paramount+.

"It's more about what having this film in theaters means long term for the studio," Dergarabedian said. "It's chess — it ain't checkers."