- Ukraine's inventory of US-made Patriot systems has been crucial for air defense.
- The US Army is closely watching the engagements and using them to inform its planning.
- Two Army officers told BI it underscores the need for sufficient interceptor stockpiles.
Ukraine's high demand for US-made Patriot air defense systems and interceptors to defend against Russian attacks is showing the US Army that it needs to stockpile missiles for future fights, two officers told Business Insider.
The MIM-104 Patriot is Ukraine's best surface-to-air missile system and a critical shield since it arrived in the country over two years ago. Kyiv is believed to be operating six batteries, which are a critical element in its defense against Russia's massive attacks on Ukrainian cities, especially those involving ballistic missiles.
However, this high-tempo operating environment has strained Patriot interceptor stockpiles. Ukraine has long been hamstrung by a shortage of missiles, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeatedly calling on the US and NATO allies to send more. The country has been unable to get enough of these weapons, and new US holds might complicate that further.
Patriot interceptors come in multiple variants, and Ukraine is known to have received several different types of missiles since it started operating the system in 2023. This diversity of ammunition is helping inform US war planning.
Lt. Col. James Compton, the deputy operations officer for the 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command, said that the Ukraine conflict "has highlighted that you should not stockpile one or two types of interceptors. It is obviously important to have a large number, but there are several variants of the Patriot missile," each bringing its own capability against a threat.
"There is not a 'one size fits all' solution," he added, explaining that "you do not want to use the same missile against a drone that you would against a ballistic missile, and this conflict reinforces the need to plan how units are postured accordingly."
Ensuring sufficient stockpiles of each of the interceptors requires a strong defense industry and global supply chain.
Chief Warrant Officer Sanjeev "Jay" Siva, a technician with the 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command, said recent conflicts, especially the Ukraine war, have demonstrated an "urgent need for increased global production and distribution of Patriot interceptor missiles," specifically the Patriot Advanced Capability-2, PAC-3, and MSE variants.
Reinforcing that point are conflicts in the Middle East, where the Army has used Patriot batteries to help fend off multiple Iranian ballistic missile attacks since April 2024; the most recent engagement was last month. In Ukraine, at least two interceptors are thought to be needed to destroy an incoming ballistic missile, so a medium-sized barrage can quickly eat away at stockpiles.
As the US military looks across the Pacific at China's growing military power and substantial arsenal of ballistic missiles, land- and ship-based air defense is top of mind. Analysts and officials have voiced concern that American forces are using up interceptors without clear plans for replacing them.
Having a large number of Patriot interceptors would be critical for the US in a large-scale conflict with a peer adversary, like China or Russia. The head of Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. Samuel Paparo, has said that shipments of Patriots and interceptors to the Ukrainians have been "eating into stocks." He said that "to say otherwise would be dishonest."
Last year, the Army awarded Lockheed Martin, one of the Patriot manufacturers, a contract to boost the annual production of PAC-3 MSE missiles to 650, up from 350 just a few years ago. The company said in March that it expects to reach this milestone by 2027.
Siva stressed that the Patriot "represents a critical final tier of defense against increasingly complex threats," like one-way attack drones and cruise missiles, and the weapons remain "the sole effective" protection against tactical ballistic missiles. He said that "addressing this capability gap is paramount to maintaining regional and global security."
