- A trade war between the US and Europe could see more airlines turn to China's Comac, analysts said.
- However, Comac also relies heavily on US parts that already face enormous tariffs.
- At the moment, Airbus looks set to benefit as China turns away Boeing deliveries.
China's new planemaker could find fortune or ruin depending on the future of Donald Trump's tariff plan.
Comac, officially the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, launched its C919 aircraft in 2023. The narrow-body jet is similar to an Airbus A320 or Boeing 737, and has competitors on their toes.
While Comac delivered just 13 such jets last year, all to Chinese airlines, it has a backlog of over 1,000 orders. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury believes Comac's rise could see the sector go "from a duopoly to a potential triopoly."
Trump's tariffs are a pivotal moment for Comac. On the one hand, tariffs could widen the appeal of Chinese aircraft both domestically and abroad, but the C919 also relies on dozens of American parts.
A trade war between the homes of aviation's two major players, Boeing and the European planemaker Airbus, has the potential to open a lane for Comac.
Trump initially announced a 20% higher rate on all imports from the European Union but later halved that amid a 90-day pause.
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian has said he would defer deliveries of any Airbus jets that are tariffed. Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair, has said similar regarding Boeing planes.
While the pause staved off the bloc's plan for retaliatory tariffs, it isn't a closed case just yet.
Earlier this month, analysts at Barclays predicted that the possibility of tariffs on Airbus and Boeing aircraft "might well prove the catalyst to launch the competing Chinese C919 narrow body onto the international stage."
"Would Ryanair consider the C919 with fresh interest if the Max 10 deliveries are delayed and all Max deliveries are subject to tariffs?" the analysts added.
The Irish budget airline has a strong relationship with Boeing and only flies 737 jets. However, the airline group also operates subsidiaries that use Airbus planes.
O'Leary appears open to the idea of ordering the C919, too.
"The Chinese are basically building a fucking A320. So if it was cheap enough — 10 or 20% cheaper than an Airbus aircraft — then we'd order it," he told Skift in late March.
"I don't care who makes them, whether it's Boeing, Airbus, or Comac. As long as the price is right, we'd buy it," he added.
Comac relies heavily on parts from the US and Europe
However, Comac's pricing is under threat from tariffs because the C919 is heavily dependent on imports. Trump has imposed tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods, with retaliatory tariffs of 125% on US goods entering China.
According to analysts at Bank of America, the C919 has 48 major suppliers from the US, 26 from Europe, and just 14 from China.
"If China stops buying aircraft components from the US, the C919 program is halted or dead," they wrote in a report last week.
It looks like Chinese airlines won't have many alternatives, though. Flight tracking data has shown several Boeing 737 Max jets returning from China to the planemaker's Seattle home.
With planemakers facing huge backlogs, Boeing would not struggle to reallocate any aircraft turned away by Chinese airlines. The BofA analysts see India as a potential recipient. Malaysian Airlines' managing director also told a state news outlet that it's talking to Boeing about acquiring any such jets.
However, Boeing would be ceding huge ground to Airbus, which has a final assembly line in Tianjin. The European planemaker predicts China will be the world's biggest market for aviation services by 2043, accounting for 20% of all aircraft deliveries.
While Trump has criticized Boeing for delays to the new Air Force One project, it seems unlikely he would let one of the country's biggest exporters suffer much.
Aviation has already been one of the industries most affected by Trump's tariff plans.
A US-China trade war could ruin Comac but increase Airbus' dominance. Alternatively, more airlines around the world could look to the C919 if Airbus and Boeing both face tariffs in a US-EU trade war.
For now, it looks like Comac will struggle, but with Trump's tariff plans frequently changing, the Chinese planemaker's future remains uncertain.
