The M&A cycle is roaring back — and Goldman says the dealmaker talent race remains 'intense'

The dealmaking market has been growing hotter by the minute, as a robust corporate merger backdrop is driving pay packages higher on Wall Street.

Banks need elite talent to tackle what's expected to be a busy 2026, forcing them to compete for top dealmakers amid one of the strongest M&A backdrops in years. The industry "will probably have the second biggest year in history," Goldman Sachs CFO Denis Coleman said on Tuesday at a financial industry conference hosted by the firm, noting that the bank has already advised on activity "north of a trillion dollars" this year.

Coleman acknowledged the intensity of the hiring market in an interview with an equity research analyst. He said the bank is prepared to shell out to retain its top performers. He described the compensation landscape as "competitive" for the crème-de-la-crème.

"Our philosophy is to continue to be a pay-for-performance organization, and we want to make sure that we're in a position to pay very competitively, particularly for our very best people," he said. "As long as the markets are as ebullient as they are and with optimism on the outlook, that'll continue to be a focus."

Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer Denis Coleman. Courtesy of Goldman Sachs

He also pointed to the formation of the firm's Capital Solutions Group — a consolidation of underwriting, sponsor coverage, and corporate derivatives into one centralized hub. It has enabled more complex financings and opportunities across both institutional and wealth clients since it was formed, Coleman said.

"The opportunity to deploy sizable capital into acquisition financing is a very attractive activity for Goldman Sachs," he said.

Strong tailwinds

The remarks come after a better-than-expected earnings season on Wall Street, where major banks reported a resurgence in dealmaking after nearly three years of sputtering and false starts.

Goldman's advisory revenue jumped 60% in the third quarter to $1.4 billion, while JPMorgan, Citi, and Morgan Stanley each logged double-digit gains in investment-banking fees in the most recent quarter.

CEOs across the Street have been sounding increasingly bullish: Morgan Stanley chief Ted Pick said in the fall that after years of seeing only "green shoots," the "flywheel is taking hold," prompting some bankers to wonder whether a new "golden age" for corporate dealmaking may be emerging.

The recent government shutdown didn't stall the M&A train, Coleman added on Tuesday, conceding it slowed equity offerings because regulators were closed. But as far as the advisory business goes: "We feel very very good about how the franchise is positioned" heading into the new year.

That momentum is feeding directly into pay expectations. Compensation consultancy Johnson Associates projected that year-end bonuses will rise across most corners of high finance — with M&A bankers forecast to see increases up to 15%, their strongest showing since 2021. Traders are expected to lead the bonus scoreboard with gains of up to 25%, while wealth management incentives are also set to climb.

"It is a moment in time, but at this moment in time, based on the quality of our franchise and the current outlook," Coleman said, "we feel really, really good about continuing to drive growth for our clients and returns for our shareholders."

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