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Good morning. JPMorgan Chase released CEO Jamie Dimon's much-anticipated annual letter to shareholders.
In the 58-page letter, Dimon said he sees stagflation dangers slowing the economy — and suggested that stock market pain may not be over. Dimon, a longtime meeting-hater, also offered tips on holding better ones. Read BI's takeaways here.
In today's big story, public offerings were about to take off. Instead, they've hit the massive Trump Slump — and there's no end in sight.
What's on deck
Markets: Finance influencers share their advice amid Trump's tariffs.
Tech: NYC's tech scene loves this cold-plunge and sauna studio.
Business: Hollywood was hoping for a comeback in 2025. Now, those dreams are fading.
But first, RIP to the IPO comeback.
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The big story
The Great IPO Depression
It's bad news for everyone.
Just a few months ago, tech IPOs seemed primed for a comeback.
"All signs were pointing to 2025 as the year when we would finally get some IPOs," said Matt Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital.
But a historic stock market sell-off, precipitated by Donald Trump's tariffs, has thrown cold water on those hopes.
IPO analysts at Renaissance now estimate that as few as 150 deals could be made this year, making 2025 the fourth straight down year for IPOs.
Another possible factor: Dreams of an IPO comeback may have been unrealistic from the start.
Recent boom times led to the belief that public markets could ask for the moon — and get it, BI's Dakin Campbell writes.
However, as outlooks have softened, investors still expect high returns from IPOs, resulting in many companies struggling to generate the enthusiasm needed for a successful public offering.
As long as IPOs remain stagnant, average Americans have few ways to share in Silicon Valley's wealth.
A slowdown in the IPO market limits the opportunities for mom-and-pop investors to directly take stakes in high-growth companies. That means there's less chance for them to strike it big with the next Facebook or Airbnb.
The knock-on effect? Further deepening the divide between the stock market haves and have-nots.
"Yet again, we are sequestering the majority of the upside of our prosperity to the private markets that consist mostly of 0.1 percenters and institutional investors," Scott Galloway, an entrepreneur and marketing professor at New York University, observed.
So, what could spur a more robust market for IPOs? Analysts have some ideas, though it will likely involve companies lowering their valuations.
3 things in markets
1. Mark Cuban says the US could be on track for a "worse situation" than 2008. In a series of Bluesky posts, Cuban suggested the extensive tariffs, combined with cuts to the federal workforce, could result in a worse financial crisis than the Great Recession.
2. Finance influencers on navigating tariffs uncertainty. BI asked nine finance influencers their top piece of advice amid tariff-related market instability. They shared budgeting, investing, and travel tips, but the No. 1 rule was "don't panic."
3. The trade war's silver lining. The 30-year mortgage rate dropped to its lowest point since October during the trade war chaos of last week. That's a bright spot for homebuyers — but it may not last long.
3 things in tech
1. Tariffs chaos hits Amazon's atmosphere. President Trump's whiplash tariffs announcement is throwing the retail giant into uncertain territory. Amazon's stock was among the hardest hit on Thursday, and some employees, sellers, and vendors say the company has given them little guidance so far.
2. Building AI is about to get even more expensive. Most semiconductors are tariff-exempt, but what if the chips are inside other products? It may be time to rethink supply chains.
3. NYC techies <3 sweating and networking. The cold-plunge and sauna studio Othership is the hottest new spot for New York's tech scene, mixing wellness with socializing. It's open to more than just tech workers, though it was designed with them in mind. BI went inside.
3 things in business
1. TikTok's US teams are getting Chinese leaders, staffers say. A string of US executive exits left a management vacuum at TikTok, which employees say ByteDance's Chinese leaders are filling. However, this could change again if ByteDance sells TikTok to a new owner.
2. Hollywood's dashed dreams. Three months into 2025, Hollywood's hopes for a comeback are fading fast. Trump's tariffs, declining production, and more are casting a shadow on the industry's growth prospects.
3. The Chinese food "tsunami." A slew of authentic Chinese restaurant brands are coming to the US, but geopolitical tensions and anti-Asian sentiment persist. Could the cuisine bridge divides between the two countries, or is it set up to fail?
In other news
- Elon Musk's tariff rift with Trump's top trade advisor is getting ugly.
- We went to the anti-Trump protests. Here's what surprised us the most.
- I asked 200 retirees for their best advice. The biggest tip had nothing to do with money.
- Inside MrBeast's business, which generated $473 million in revenue in a single year and comprises much of his net worth.
- Stargate's Texas data center campus could cost $3.5 billion. Most of it will be tax-free.
- The last time the US raised tariffs this much it made the Great Depression way worse.
- Life on pause: The economy has Americans rethinking everything from babies to businesses.
- Love, fate, and blood money in Thailand: 'The White Lotus' season three ending explained.
- The 12-year-old investor — how FIRE parents are teaching their kids to be financially savvy.
What's happening today
- BlackRock CEO Larry Fink speaks at the Economic Club of New York.
- March Madness national championship.
- It's National Beer Day. Crack open a cold one.
The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York (on parental leave). Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Nathan Rennolds, editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Elizabeth Casolo, fellow, in Chicago.
