- Some members of Dubai's expat community who left temporarily during the Iran war are returning.
- Amid the ceasefire, UAE schools are reopening, and in-person work is ramping up.
- `A private education and relocation expert said some residents are putting contingency measures in place.
The cautious return to Dubai is underway.
It's been over a week since a ceasefire was agreed between the US and Iran. The school gates are reopening, workers are gradually returning to face-to-face meetings, and expats who left temporarily are coming back.
Sandy Zanella, a doctor and mindfulness coach, moved to Dubai from the US over five years ago. Two weeks after the war broke out, Zanella and her family went to her husband's native Italy.
After speaking with friends in Dubai and hearing that life is going on as normal, she has decided to return with her two kids on Saturday. Zanella said she feels "privileged to have this kind of opportunity" to temporarily leave, but would return even if there were no ceasefire.
"The uncertainty of things is kind of heavy, but what can we do?" Zanella said, referring to her life being in Dubai right now.
Safe haven status
Over the past few decades, Dubai has marketed itself as a safe haven for expats, offering zero income tax, high salaries, and a luxury lifestyle.
The city has been home to millions of expats from across the world across the past few decades; they make up around 90% of Dubai's population, per UAE government data.
But its safe-haven status flipped overnight when the Iran war broke out at the end of February.
Iran struck the UAE with drones and missiles as part of a wider retaliation against the US and its allies in the region, causing casualties and damage to buildings and infastructure. Residents, who were initially advised to stay indoors and work from home, reported loud booms from missile interceptions and distant explosions.
Tens of thousands of travelers were stranded in the UAE after the airspace around the region was closed as the war kicked off. Hotels began slashing prices and promoting staycations to offset a drop in tourism. Schools switched to distance learning, and spring break was moved forward. Some expat families, like Zanella's, took advantage of this to temporarily leave Dubai.
Many packed up and left altogether. Citing official estimates, the Financial Times reported earlier this month that 30,000 British residents left the UAE since the start of the war, though it is too early to say how many have permanently left.
Not all residents of Dubai were able to leave. For migrant workers, many of whom work in manual labor and as drivers for wealthy expats, the regional conflict has made life more difficult. Jason Nemerovski, a researcher at Equidem, a human rights and labor rights organization, said many have reported salary cuts.
"I think that is the key thing to understand when you are making a comparison between someone from "Western countries" and a Pakistani delivery rider — this was a decision made out of desperation, not desire," Nemerovski told Business Insider, about migrant workers' decision to move to Dubai.
Nemerovski told Business Insider that a delivery rider he spoke to on Thursday said he plans to leave if he can find an opportunity elsewhere, but says people would rather stay despite the risks due to a lack of work opportunities in their home country.
And with the ceasefire holding for now, some expats are deciding to return to their lives in Dubai, albeit with some caution.
A new kind of normal
The Knowledge and Human Development Authority, which oversees private education in Dubai, announced on Wednesday that schools and higher education institutions will resume in-person teaching from Monday. School bus services also resume that day.
The UAE government advised private-sector employees to work remotely for the days following the outbreak of the war. While some residents returned to the office in the early days of the conflict, more appear to be shifting to in-person work.
Charli Wright, owner and CEO of Dubai-based marketing agency JWI, told Business Insider that after a few weeks of working from home, her team has been back in person.
Wright said clients are pushing for in-person meetings, and she has continued hiring and interviewing candidates.
Chantelle Thompson moved to Dubai from the UK at the end of January with her husband and three children. Despite the Iran war, her family chose to stay in Dubai, and she said leaving the city was never a consideration.
While she faced issues in obtaining the birth certificates required for her visa to the UAE due to postal delays, she said, aside from that, things are "running as normal." The family is now completing their relocation and arranging for their dogs to come to Dubai.
"Until we really knew what's going on, I didn't feel comfortable bringing them out here," Thompson said of her pets. "Now we've assessed the situation, we feel more comfortable getting them over."
Antonio Masih, a director at Pawsome Friends, which offers a pet relocation service in Dubai, said that while March was a "very stressful time" with over 70 to 80 inquiries a day for pet relocation out of the UAE, things have calmed down considerably since the ceasefire.
"I think there's a bit of normality now in Dubai. It's definitely calmed down a lot now," Masih told Business Insider.
"I think if you give it probably about another two weeks, I think everything will be back to normal," he added.
Send My Bag, which offers luggage delivery and relocation services, told Business Insider that there was a 543% increase in shipment orders coming out of the UAE since March 1.
Adam Ewart, the CEO, said that while they are processing small shipments out of the UAE — a behavior that suggests a more temporary move — they have started to see some larger orders leaving the UAE.
Shipments to the UAE were down 50% in the first week of the war and flat the second week. Ewart said they are picking up again, but this is partly because of family at home sending presents and care packages to relatives in the UAE.
"It makes sense that at a time like this, family in another country would be increasing this activity to show their thinking of their loved ones living in the region," said Ewart.
The wait-and-see approach
While some expat families are moving back, Hilesh Chavda, a partner at London-based law firm Spencer West, told Business Insider that he has not had any new inquiries about relocating to the Middle East, despite it being a popular destination for UK-based families.
And for those who have remained in Dubai, caution nonetheless remains. Sandy Zanella, who plans to return this weekend, said she's excited to get back to her life in Dubai. However, the uncertainty of the ceasefire means she does not yet feel confident about having her children at school full-time.
"It's the part that I can't control," she said. "I trust the teachers and everything, but it's too many hours where you can get alarms, alerts."
Angus Gibson, founder and director of Treberys Private, a private education and relocation consultancy which advises HNW families, told Business Insider that there has been a shift from reactive decision-making toward contingency planning.
"Families are increasingly looking at how to preserve stability for children, whether that means staying put with the right support around them, or putting a temporary alternative in place until the picture in Dubai becomes clearer," Gibson added.
Thompson, who stayed in Dubai during the Iran war, said her children are currently being tutored at home until they start school in Dubai in August.
"We've just realised that it's become our new normal," she said of life there.
"Obviously there are a lot of people have chosen to leave," she added. But, "there is a massive sense of community here."
