- Russia "is a lot weaker than many people realize," Michael Carpenter, a former Biden official, said.
- Russia has burned through much of its Soviet-era stockpiles and is increasingly reliant on new munitions.
- Russian weapons are going straight to the front to be used within weeks, Carpenter said.
Russia "is a lot weaker than many people realize," Michael Carpenter, who served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia and Ukraine at the Pentagon between 2015 and 2017, told the Power Vertical podcast earlier this month.
As an example, Carpenter said that much of Russia's amped-up military production is going straight to the front lines of its war in Ukraine.
"Although it has dramatically ramped up its military production, it is essentially using all of that production within weeks of it rolling out on the factory floor," he said.
Russia has gone through its vast Soviet-era stockpiles of equipment at a staggering rate since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
In February, the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated that Russia had lost 14,000 main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, predicted in January that "2025 will be the last year Russia can rely on its massive stockpiles of Soviet-era conventional arms, including artillery, main battle tanks and armored vehicles."
If Russia's losses continue as they have done, he estimated that by mid-year, Russia will be reliant on newly manufactured arms.
Reliance on others
Russia is increasingly leaning on its allies like Iran and North Korea to cover any ammunition shortfalls.
Recently-released analysis by Reuters and the Open Source Centre research group found that up to 100% of munitions used by Russia in some engagements came from North Korea.
"There is no excess stockpile that the Russians have that they could use if somehow they were cut off from their Chinese sponsors, or also their Iranian and North Korean supporters," Carpenter said.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's own supply issues are well documented, and could get worse as the Trump White House cools on its support.
Ukraine says its homegrown production of military drones — vital on the front lines of this conflict — is now the biggest in the world.
There's also been a historic boost to European defense funding through the ReArm Europe initiative, announced in early March, which aims to unlock about $840 billion in defense funding for both the continent and Ukraine.
However, there is no sign that Russia's military production — or fighting — efforts are grinding down.
In April, US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO's supreme allied commander in Europe, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Russia is on track to build a 155mm shell stockpile "three times greater than the United States and Europe combined."
Moscow is also on track to replace most of its vital equipment lost in 2024, he added.
In a following Power Vertical episode, military analyst Michael Kofman said that after a winter lull, Russia "has renewed offensive intensity," with combined mechanized assaults that he described as a "Mad Max approach."
