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Good morning. Wall Street has been teetering on a tightrope of uncertainty lately. But in the coming months, investors may finally gain some much-needed clarity. Here are eight days to watch for when investors will discover if their worst fears are coming to life.
In today's big story, Google might get broken up. Behind closed doors, CMOs aren't cheering.
What's on deck
Markets: Private equity's recruiting storm is almost here. Here's how to get ahead of it.
Tech: Microsoft pivots toward Amazon's handling of low performers — by paying them to leave.
Business: Tesla can't afford to miss its Robotaxi launch in June.
But first, fighting on two fronts.
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The big story
A big breakup
It could be the end of Google as we know it.
Google is battling separate rulings in two landmark US antitrust cases that found the company illegally monopolized the search and adtech markets.
While the exact remedies have yet to be determined, Google is trying to avoid being forced to divest assets like its Chrome browser, the jewel of the US browser market.
Marketers collectively spent more than $264 billion advertising on Google properties like YouTube and search last year. So, you might expect them to cheer at the biggest player in the market being taken down a peg or two.
You'd be wrong. Many of the agitators pushing for a Google breakup are — surprise, surprise — those who stand to benefit the most: owners of demand-side platforms, ad servers, and supply-side platforms that directly compete with Google's adtech.
Otherwise, there isn't a great deal of champagne being popped. You'd be hard-pressed to find the CMO of a major brand talking about the matter publicly, or even privately putting much stock in it, BI's Lara O'Reilly writes.
For now, Google has large audiences that marketers desire and ads that appear to work.
"This is a drug people have become addicted to," a marketer told BI. "Breakup or no breakup, people keep spending in these places because there's a lack of real alternatives that deliver."
Sure, CMOs would likely welcome a more transparent and marketer-friendly Google. But, in a time when CMOs face the prospect of a recession, tariffs, and major advertising budget cuts, dealing with the fallout of a potential Google breakup lies somewhere near the bottom of a marketer's to-do list.
3 things in markets
1. A "bear killer" signal has flashed. The VIX, a gauge of stock-market volatility, just saw a sharp decline from elevated levels. One technical analyst told BI that this signals major stock gains are ahead.
2. Traders on Elon Musk's Tesla return: "Too late dude." Musk gave investors what they've been asking for when he announced plans to step back from DOGE. While Tesla's stock soared on Wednesday, many online traders say the damage has been done.
3. The calm before private equity's recruiting storm. Every year, private-equity recruiters hold a week of speed-dating recruiting for junior talent, known as on-cycle recruiting. They told BI how to get ahead of the interviewing frenzy — and what not to do.
3 things in tech
1. Tech is turning its back on Gen Z. AI isn't the only thing aspiring software engineers have to worry about. If the tech career ladder collapses, it could lead to big gaps in pay, skill, and job satisfaction. Collapse isn't just on the horizon — the cracks are already showing.
2. Would you quit if your boss paid you to? That's what Microsoft is betting on by giving low performers a choice to quit. The move is straight from Amazon's management playbook: take a payout to leave now, or risk getting axed on a performance-improvement plan.
3. Is defense tech overhyped? VCs are pouring billions into the sector under Trump, whose executive orders included upgrading military tech and shoring up defense acquisitions. Not everyone is sold, though — some worry about tariff impacts and possible overvaluation.
3 things in business
1. Tesla's Robotaxi launch is the one deadline it can't miss. With Tesla's tanking stock price and Elon Musk's unpopularity over DOGE, its June Robotaxi launch has to be a hit to assuage investors' fears. Musk has a history of blowing past deadlines, but this is one he can't afford to.
2. Shoppers are going for gold at Costco, literally. Some Costco members with certain cards are taking advantage of their rewards by buying gold from the wholesaler. The metal is surging amid broader market uncertainty, briefly hitting above $3,500 an ounce on Tuesday.
3. TikTok's latest management shake-up. The head of US operations for TikTok Shop, Nico Le Bourgeois, is moving under Mu Qing, a former e-commerce VP for Chinese app Douyin, three staffers told BI. It's the latest move to shift TikTok Shop's management under global leadership.
In other news
- JPMorgan tapped 118 new managing directors in global banking and markets. See the full list of names.
- The Big Tech vs. Europe war just ratcheted up. But Trump is also taking on Big Tech.
- The Big Four have a partner problem — and they're losing talent.
- I went to South Korea to get plastic surgery. I came back more insecure than ever.
- Chipotle is making it a must for staff to smile at customers.
- Citadel founder Ken Griffin's current market advice: 'Tread water and not drown.'
- Can AI make dating apps feel more human? This startup that's raised $2 million thinks so.
- With a limited supply of GPUs, how do you prioritize AI projects? Amazon uses these eight tenets to decide who gets access.
- Get ready to pay more for that engagement ring you've been eyeing.
What's happening today
- Alphabet, Intel, PepsiCo, Comcast, and Southwest Airlines report earnings.
- NFL draft day.
