DOGE's deepest cuts to federal jobs are still to come — with or without Elon Musk

Elon Musk said he's backing away from DOGE in May, but that doesn't mean the federal worker firings are over.

In fact, they're only heating up.

While the first era of DOGE firings continues to face legal issues, the next set could be on stronger footing. That's because agencies have the chance to craft more methodical plans. In particular, many are offering buyout-like deferred resignation plans for workers to voluntarily quit in exchange for months of paid administrative leave.

These methods could prove to be on a more solid legal footing than the first round of firings, which focused on new or newly promoted workers, cited low performance ratings, and did not provide notice. It all means that the DOGE ethos is alive and well in the federal government, with or without Musk.

How round 2 of firings is different

Musk and DOGE spent much of the last three months overseeing a wave of probationary federal workers. Those workers were at the start of their tenure in their new roles, including internal promotions. They have fewer protections than longer-serving federal employees.

That round of cuts saw several snafus because, rather than targeting specific programs, DOGE simply removed many people who had been working for less than a year or two. That led to scenarios like workers who handle the nuclear stockpile or study bird flu getting fired and then ultimately rehired. It also faced legal issues, with a judge ordering in March that those workers needed to be reinstated.

Going back to the drawing board with terminations means a chance to execute reduction-in-force plans, or RIFs, that follow proper procedures.

"I think probably the courts have done a huge favor to DOGE by putting people back in their office until they can do a more well-calculated RIF," Michele Evermore, a senior fellow at the left-leaning think tank the Century Foundation, said.

The White House and DOGE office did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

Over the past month, new RIFs have gone out. The Department of Education announced in March that it was terminating over 1,300 workers, slashing its workforce by 50%. The Small Business Administration said it would reduce its workforce by 43%.

The Department of Health and Human Services had already started terminating employees as part of its plan to slash 10,000 from its workforce.

While the next round of reductions appears to be more targeted, it doesn't mean they're immune to litigation.

Federal worker unions have vowed to fight back. Doreen Greenwald, president of the National Treasury Employees Union, said in a statement that the union would "pursue every legal avenue to stop this unprecedented attack on the very foundation of our national government."

It's unclear if they'll have a case. David Super, an administrative law professor at Georgetown Law, said that the plans may vary by department, and some could be more vulnerable to legal challenges than others.

He added that it's "entirely possible that those agencies work really, really carefully and produce correct RIF plans."

Federal workers are getting the option to quit before they're fired

In lieu of RIFs, some agencies are choosing another acronym: DRPs. Deferred resignation programs are the next round of the "Fork In The Road" that offered employees early resignation earlier in the year, and might be an easier solution for those aiming to trim head count because workers voluntarily opt into them. Bloomberg reported, for instance, that nearly 20% of Department of Labor workers have opted for voluntary separation. Some Social Security Administration employees have also received a DRP.

Two internal emails at the Internal Revenue Service, viewed by BI, said that over 10,000 agency employees applied for the second round of the deferred resignation program and that further reductions in force are coming.

While DRPs might help the government shed workers, the payout could end up being less than the severance provided in a RIF, said Alan Lescht, an employment attorney specializing in federal workers.

"They're trotting this out to people who are being targeted for RIFs or could potentially be in a RIF. And for federal employees that are like that, the RIFs may actually provide a larger payout," Lescht said. And, opting into a DRP means workers are giving up rights to their positions — essentially, forfeiting the ability to be reinstated. He suggests workers take a "deep dive" into their job prospects before opting out.

"For many people, it may turn out that the best option is to stay and fight because the government has to satisfy a lot of requirements in order to justify a firing under the RIF rules," Lescht said. "The RIF rules are very extensive and very complicated, and it's very likely that with the speed with which the government is moving, that they will make mistakes."

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