- Cracker Barrel's stock slid nearly 10% after its Q4 earnings report on Wednesday had mixed results.
- While it missed on earnings, the report showed revenue beat expectations, and loyalty sign-ups surged.
- Despite recent tumult, the numbers show that Cracker Barrel's loyal fans are sticking by the brand.
It has been a rough month for Cracker Barrel — but its most loyal fans appear to be sticking it out for now.
Cracker Barrel reported its Q4 earnings on Wednesday, missing analyst expectations on earnings and beating on revenue. The mixed results saw shares tumble nearly 10% in after-hours trading, another knock to the chain, which has faced a barrage of criticism over its halted rebrand effort in recent weeks.
But a closer read of its same-store sales and loyalty program sign-ups reveals a silver lining for Cracker Barrel: its die-hard customers seem to have doubled down.
Despite a significant decline in expected traffic for fiscal year 2026 — projected to be between 4% to 7% — Cracker Barrel's same-store sales were up 5.4% for its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended in August. The company said its foot traffic has taken a hit in the wake of its rollout and subsequent rollback of its updated logo, but its core audience of diners aged 65 and up has seen less severe declines than other demographics.
Sign-ups for its loyalty program were also up. Over the past year, CEO Julie Felss Masino said Cracker Barrel saw its rewards program membership increase by 3 million people, with a spike in recent weeks, despite the rebranding backlash.
"Traffic is down since 8/19, but loyalty program sign-ups are actually ahead of our plan," Masino said, referring to August 19th, when the new logo was first unveiled. "So we've signed up about 400,000 people quarter to date, and 300,000 of those people have come in since 8/19 — again, exceeding our plan, exceeding our expectations."
The more than 9 million total registered members of Cracker Barrel's loyalty program account for over 35% of tracked sales and an even higher percentage of retail sales, Masino said.
"Cracker Barrel definitely still has a customer base," Jeremy Bowman, an analyst covering consumer goods for The Motley Fool, told Business Insider. "I think that, often, the way stories like this get portrayed among investors in the stock market and the media is that they're doing terribly. But it's not exactly a crisis, I mean, they are still certainly profitable."
Truist analyst Jake Bartlett wrote in a research note with a "buy" rating published Wednesday evening following the earnings call that the core drivers of Cracker Barrel's brand turnaround, including improved menu innovation and service, remain intact, and that "sales may start to recover from the re-branding backlash soon with the resumption of the Fall Menu marketing."
Bowman added that Cracker Barrel's unique business model, which combines its southern restaurants with retail shops, offers dual revenue streams that appeal to customers and investors alike.
Research from InMarket found that Cracker Barrel had the second-most loyal fans in the casual restaurant sector in Q2. This rating was based on the chain's "fidelity index" of 174, a score determined by the ratio of guest visits to a location compared to the chain's nationwide number of locations. A score of 100 is considered "on par" based on the number of visits and locations per chain, with a score greater than 100 indicating the chain is "excelling at attracting customers."
"We'll see how that loyalty continues to sort of deliver a win for the company," Bowman said. "But I think, over the long term, they still need to find a way to bring in that next generation of family customers. I don't know if you want to rely too much on the over-65 demographic."
Representatives for Cracker Barrel did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
