A new way to spot tremors in prediction markets

Former Instacart engineer Nikshep Saravanan has spun up a new project called Tremor.live, built with Claude Code and deployed via Vercel.

Tremor tracks volatility on Polymarket, a prediction market that lets traders bet on the outcome of future events. The goal of Saravanan's new tool: Spot sudden swings and identify potentially valuable situations where insiders may know more than the general population.

"If the chance of a ceasefire in a war jumps from 50% to 80%, but there's no news, it's likely someone with inside info is acting on Polymarket," Saravanan told me.

For instance, someone probably knew Tay Tay was getting hitched ahead of time and traded on it.

Tremor currently monitors about 500 active prediction markets on Polymarket, detecting price movements in real-time. Each shift is scored on a 0-10 intensity scale.

• Extreme is over 7.5 and denotes major market movements with a bright red button.
• High is 5 to 7.5, and has an orange dot.
• Moderate = 2.5 to 5 with a yellow marker.
• Low is 0 to 2.5 and captures minor fluctuations with a white button.

Tremor also integrates with X, via Grok's API, scanning tweets for relevant chatter that could explain why a particular market on Polymarket is moving. It then summarizes those findings, giving traders and analysts a snapshot of whether shifts are tied to emerging public information, or if the silence suggests insider positioning.

I checked it out on Wednesday afternoon, and this prediction market had moved the most in the past 24 hours on Polymarket, according to Tremor.live: "Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?" It had a 7.7 intensity rating, denoting an Extreme move.

"Traders appear to be positioning for a likely delay or cancellation of Tesla's robotaxi launch in California within 2025, anticipating that unresolved technical or regulatory issues — hinted at in recent posts found on X from insiders — could push the timeline further out," Tremor explained in an AI-powered summary of relevant posts on X.

Still in its MVP stage, Tremor is evolving quickly. Saravanan is adding new features and has posted the project on GitHub for others to explore.

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